Time on Wing Podcast
Time on Wing Podcast
David Rushe - President and CEO, Magellan Aviation Group
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What actually happens to an aircraft at the end of its lifecycle, and how do lessors extract maximum value when the market shifts?
In this episode, we sit down with David Rushe, President & CEO of Magellan Aviation Group, to pull back the curtain on the aircraft part-out and leasing secondary markets. From navigating the engine maintenance bottleneck to uncovering hidden gems in "tainted" airframes, Dave shares his journey from the west of Ireland to leading a global aviation asset management firm.
Whether you are an aircraft investor, lessor, or aviation enthusiast, this episode is packed with macro-level insights into how the aftermarket supply chain is keeping the global fleet flying.
My first acquisition at Magellan was a an H three forty and had a tail strike. But we looked into it, realized that uh APU, the four agents, and the dynamic gear were not on the aircraft at the time of the um maybe that's why it had a tail strike. Yeah.
Courtney MillerThis is the Timeline Wing Podcast. Welcome back. I'm Courtney Miller with Visual Approach Analytics with me once again. Welcome away. Garrick DeChawan of Collateral Verification. Garrick, who is it this time? I'm still here.
Gueric DechavanneYep, yep, yep. Uh well on this lovely Friday, we are chatting with uh David Rush or Dave Rush. Uh for those of you that know him uh a little bit better. So he's currently president CEO at Magellan Aviation Group. Uh prior to that, he was uh EVP at Magellan, but before that, he was um at Argo Capital as SVP of trading and also SVP of Mature Aircraft and Engines. Um he had a little stint at Cayenne Aviation as CTO. He had some time at uh VASR services as asset manager, he also worked for IBA Group as a senior analyst, he is one of uh fellow uh ISAT certified appraiser, or ISTAT certified appraiser, not fellow himself. And he has received his BST management and marketing from double testing technology, and he's also a licensed aircraft. So he's got a really well-rounded background for what he's doing today, which is fantastic. So, David, or David, this is your time alone. So before we get on with our guests, which you guys are gonna absolutely love, we obviously, you know, first of all, we want to thank all our listeners for listening to us and making the show what it is today. And we certainly welcome any of you to whenever you see as a conference is just please say hello. And uh, we'd love to hear that you guys are listening and and fans of the show. You know, as you all know, we do run businesses, and uh so from my end at collateral verifications. Uh, you know, on the appraisal side, right? Obviously, if you have any needs when it comes to aircraft engine landing gear, you name it, right? Just please feel free to reach out. You know, I'm very approachable. I'm happy to chat about any kind of projects, and we'd love to work with you on uh variety of things. We do have some publications out there as well. I do turbine turbine aircraft guide, turboprop value guide. Uh, I've got the aircraft rating tool. So there's various publications that we put together that can kind of help you on your day-to-day. Great reference points. Um, so definitely, you know, kind of reach out to us and we'd love to chat and kind of start that relationship with you. Okay, back to the show. Well, Dave, um, thank you for joining us on the pod. It's always great to see you. Um, you know, we certainly love chatting with you, so it's nice to actually have you on the podcast and we can record you so that way we have like some evidence of what you say, which is fantastic. We can use that.
Courtney MillerWe call that uh blackmail.
Gueric DechavanneBlackmail, yeah.
David RusheOkay, okay, blackmail's good. Yeah, yeah. I just love that point of complex department. But yeah, fine.
Gueric DechavanneYeah, try. Yeah, but uh no, so um, you know, look, uh as we as we start with all of our guests, you know, we love to kind of hear background, how you got into aviation, where the passion came from, you know, all that kind of stuff, because most people have kind of some some kind of story as to how they got into aviation. So I'll let you take it away.
David RusheYeah, so um my story is very much old Irish of the old country. Um, so um, where my dad is from is a place in the west of Ireland, uh County Mayo, and there's an airport there. I don't know if either of you have had the privilege to fly in there or see a teardown there. It's called Knock Airport. Um, it's basically in the middle of nowhere, and um, but it's uh it was I think it was initiated by a bishop who wanted to bring people, there's a shrine locally. So they've got this airport plonked in the middle of the west of Ireland. My granddad used to take me there to see the planes, which there was only two or three of them a day, so they would have had uh BAC 111s and uh which Ryanair would have had before they went into the 737 Classics and Shorts 360s that Airlingus used to operate to Dublin. So that's kind of where it all started, really. And um when I went to when I went to uh select my university course, I didn't get enough points to get into do aircraft engineering in Limerick. Um the University of Limerick, which has a great course and and still does, and indeed we have people in Magellan who've come through that course, and um so I didn't get enough points. So I ended up doing a management and marketing degree, which I didn't really like, but I stuck with it and um did the four years and uh in um the Dublin Institute of Technology, which is now called TU Dublin. Um so moved to London two years later um with my wife, and she's my girlfriend at the time. We'd never lived together before. Um so here we are in London, and then we planned on staying a year. The global financial crisis happened a couple of things, but um I had a conversation with uh Tony Whitdy. He um they were looking for somebody at the time. Um so I met with him and his um since deceased uh Malcolm Holt about a job and they had a company called Cabot Aviation at the time. Yeah. Um I think I was a bit green around the ears for them, so he recommended I have a chat with Owen Geach at IBA. IBA hired me in a commercial department, and I was, you know, I was very um I had no experience, what no hands-on experience. And um, but I kind of meandered my way through the company and ended up working under Stuart Hatcher, and we had a lot of um Sorry about that. And uh but we'd uh we we'd a lot of projects at the time, and I always felt I was exposed and that I didn't have the technical knowledge. So one of the goods.
Courtney MillerListen, if you were working with Stu Hatcher, you've been exposed to a lot more than you may remember.
David RusheIt wasn't working with, it was working for.
Courtney MillerOh, it's even worse.
David RusheOh yeah, his erotic working hours, and um, but I remember we uh we landed some big projects at the time and it was some really, really cool work. And I remember spent a lot of time out in um Turkey working on maintenance benchmarking contracts with some airlines out there, but I I always felt I was I don't know if it was imposter syndrome, which is something that's carried through, but I whether like I always felt like I needed to get to technical knowledge. So one of the technical guys in um in IBA recommended I do the AC part 66 course. So um at this stage Ethan had moved back to Dublin. I was living in London and I had time in the evenings to myself, so I was studying and then working during the day, and so um yeah, I did as much of that as I could. I didn't need the license, I just wanted the knowledge. Um so yeah, so IBA was as it has been for a lot of people, but it was a real like a real solid foundation for the rest of my career. And um like Kane Ray and Mike Yeomans would have joined kind of and worked under, you know, working with me and Elise at the time, and it was uh yeah, we're really, really, really good team, and a lot of people have came through or stayed there. It's yeah, so um, but it um an opportunity came uh with uh with BAS, I remember in uh 2012, and I am basically to be doing more work on the acquisition side. Um so I took it on. It was a big change to leave IBA and um you know to move into the parts side, but you know, inadvertently led to where I am now as all the decisions kind of have. Um but an opportunity I was a year into the role with VAS and another um which kind of changed because they they kind of went from a company that were buying assets for teardown to a company that was um doing a lot of consignment and a lot of surface work. So I lost my USP a bit, but um a company came along, um an aircraft engineering consultancy, um, an airport engineering consultancy came along and there was a role there, and I thought like this is this is my dream role, you know. Um took the position, it was based in London, um and it became clear that they didn't have enough work for me or they were focused on different contracts and stuff like that. So um we got married October uh 2013 and um booked the honeymoon and then it got made redundant a few days before Christmas. The honeymoon was booked, and I was like, Oh Jesus, you know, what are we gonna do? And Eva was back in London at this stage, of course, and we're like, oh, you know, what happens now? So um one of the first phone calls I made was to a guy called John Costello who died a few years ago, who'd been a big, big mentor of mine, and he said, Oh, you know, I know Magellan might be looking for somebody. Put me in touch with Nial Duggan, who's the managing director of our EMEA um office, and another mentor to me. And here we are. And I remember we were we were out of honeymoon, we were sitting in Hong Kong, and uh I got a text from Niall to say, Could I come to Shannon the following Thursday? And I knew I had a job with Magellan, and so things transpired. So um yeah, I had a really, really interesting seven or eight years. Magellan got involved in a lot of stuff, um, and I was quite close to Mara Benny, the shareholder. Um and based on their London office and loads of different projects and acquisitions, business development in Europe, Middle East, and Africa. Um, some funky experiences with um corrupt cops in Nairobi and everything, and um uh but like a really, really great time, and then COVID happened, and you know, no one had a kind of a view of how we get out of this, you know. I couldn't travel. Um I uh you know, we'd we we there was no asset with there was assets available, we'd no funding, so I was like confidence was gone. And then um Kayan came along, they were looking for um a CTO role, which wasn't really a CTO, but it was looking for somebody with technical input into pricing. I'd moved back to Dublin at this point, and they wanted an originator. And that was a really, really fun year I had there. Um and a lot of a lot of exposure and a lot of you know, I'd I'd never with Magellan, we were one captive shareholder, we never had to lever any deals, got all that exposure with Anoush and the guys at Cayenne and helped build some really good foundations there, and um yeah, and then things then uh went to Ergo. Um and so yeah, kind of bounced around a bit after COVID and um yeah, there were some changes in Ergo, which kind of you know um I was originally hired in on the engine and kind of end-of-life role, which is which was ideal. Um working with Carl and um and Rebecca and um uh Ergo acquired Sarah, and there's some changes in the company, and then um I uh yeah, and then conversation at ISTAT in London um in October 2023, where Magellan indicated you know they'd like to talk to me about maybe coming back into a leadership position. And like I always had a plan to go back to Magellan, but it was about a few years earlier than than than I thought, but I was like, yeah, this is you know, this is what I want.
Courtney MillerUm Prodigal Sun returns, David Russ, you've got uh Steve Jobs, right? I mean same same same gallery, same level, yeah, yeah.
David RusheYeah, um like Michael Jordan here in Charlotte or something like that. Yeah, there you go, yeah. Yeah, but um yeah, so um so a bit like Trump, you know. I came back for a for a second go at it, you know.
Courtney MillerAnd uh are you saying is this what we should look forward to?
David RusheWe've both got airplanes in our office, right? There you go, yeah, it's true, yeah. But I came for this myself and it's made out of Lego, so um, but uh yeah, so um yeah, that's kind of yeah, and then the uh so so yeah, kind of came back in the Magellan in a kind of a um uh business development and origination role. And I think the way the the market was going, there was nothing available for teardown, or certainly nothing that you could build a strategy around, you know. So we decided to went to leasing. Um to we now Magellan had always been a leasing company, um, but we decided to be a bit more strategic about it. It's like, okay, let's build some pipeline for the future, you know, and um we had a lease pool there, which would have predominantly been regional engines in the past, so Cratt and Whitney Canada 100 series and uh CF34s, yeah. So um which yeah, the good stuff, yeah. Yeah which um uh that's a very hot market at the moment, actually. But the but the um so now it's it's 5B, 7B, V2500, and some um PW4000. Um but uh yeah so we decided to like we secured a couple of engines in 2024 um with leases attached to build a pipeline for the future and that remains part of the strategy today um and will continue to be. So you know if you don't want there's there's there's a bit more part-out availability in the market now, um, and some of that are or we've got a a pretty pretty healthy part-out pipeline. Some of that is because of a bit of availability, but some of it's because if increased coverage and having you know some additions we've made to the team as well. So um, but it's been it's you know, some aspects of it have been bumpy since I came back, you know, the the the market's been a little bit unpredictable, acquisitions have been tight, and we've lost some people, we've got you know the natural order of things, we've got some um guys on the leadership team who are you know kind of reaching a retirement age and stuff like that. So, you know, all that's to be kind of dealt with. So kind of an unprecedented level um level of transition, but we're have the advantage of a very supportive shareholder, um a Mara Beni, who you know they've obviously diversified their subsidiaries recently as well, and you know, a bit of collaboration amongst them as well. So it's uh it's been good. Yeah, we've got a like the the relationship between us and Marabeni is obviously paramount, and yeah, it's been it's been really strong.
Gueric DechavanneSo yeah, it's been going on because I'm trying to think when did Arabini buy me buy Magellan, right? Because they bought a stake initially, right? And then they ended up buying the whole thing. Yeah, 2012.
David RusheYeah. And um at IBA we actually wrote the white paper, the market white paper for um for Maravani's investment in team and subsequently um Magellan.
Gueric DechavanneSo did you write yourself in there to be like, by the way, you know, at some point, this you should really put this guy at the top, he's great.
David RusheYeah, yeah. Let him come in for seven or eight years and then then get rid of him and then get him back, you know.
Gueric DechavanneYeah, let him go out, let him get some experience, bring him back. That was part of the whole plan.
David RusheYeah, but like I like I know if you know, it just every time I look at it here, it kind of bounced around a bit, but like I don't regret any the decisions I've made because they've all led to this pathway, you know, and hopefully everything goes well because it really is the the role that is ideal. You know, I I think it's ideal for me and it's the one that I've wanted, and yeah, it's it's hard work for sure.
Gueric DechavanneUm like I said at the beginning, right? It's it's I I feel like you've got a pretty well balanced career because of the fact that you've you've kind of worked in different aspects of aviation, which all kind of work out in the end, right? I mean it they all work well together, so it's kind of nice to have that.
David RusheIt's a lot of like a lot of touch points. Like for you know, we're we're a part of a business. We have two massive warehouses and 130 odd mounts to feed, and um, so we're a parts business at the end of the day. But we we lease, um, you know, we we've we're getting programs going with airlines now. Um, you know, we talk to the we buy from the banks the lessors, um you know, we're trying to increase our direct airline trading. So you do get a lot of as many touch points as you would with a kind of a traditional conventional lessor, um we're just not dealing with new aircraft. That's the only the only difference, you know. But um, so like you know, speaking of which, like we have a you know, an appetite for new tech this year, but I just don't see a a lot of value in what's trading at the moment, and maybe we'll get into that later. But um yeah, there is opportunities out there for sure.
Gueric DechavanneYeah, yeah, yeah. But it's at a premium, right? That's because I mean everybody kind of feels like if we're gonna do it, let's go in yeah, let's go in first.
David RusheYeah, even the with the A380s, you know, the the first what, 10 aircraft will do well out of all those teardowns, and then after that it's yeah it diminishes, you know. Um so yeah, yeah.
Courtney MillerUm has uh so you're running the show uh as opposed to just just the whole I say run the show, but you get the idea the idea of being a part of a team as opposed to leading the team. Um because you're I I I mean nobody asked me, but if somebody were to ask me how would I characterize Dave Rush, I'd say pretty laid-back guy. I mean, he's really easy to work with, not not like high pressure in your face. Um you know, you're you're he's gonna hang out with. Um how has that transition been to kind of you know be in the place where the buck stops?
David RusheYeah, yeah. So yeah, it's it's a it's a it's a good question. Um and yeah, I like to hang out with you too, Courtney, so it's cool.
Gueric DechavanneDid you hear that, Garrick? He didn't say you. Notice he didn't say my name. That's not he's no, he's I gotta go.
David RusheI gotta win. I forgot, I got something else I gotta do. Yeah, um, but uh I I think the the the challenge has been like because I've got I've worked in a company a long time, so I've got friends here, you know, and in this conversation you have to have conversations, you have to try and drive people and get away from that, you know. Oh yeah, he's you know, it's cool, he's he's he's laid back, and um so yeah, it is, and then there's like I'm I'm the the the big challenge for me, and you know, it was something my my uh predecessor had warned me about was having to step away from the deals and trust other people because we're all deal guys, right? And that's what that's what we all love and the relationships and everything, and it's about how to define when to step out and step back in. Um so we've got a really really good CFO, um, a really good uh CCO and legal team and then heads of operations in both office who've been with the company a long time, and that's great because you can kind of trust them to have those conversations. But sometimes they're trying to find a balance between like being being a buddy and then being the guy who's like, kind of have to push this along because you know we're getting questions from the shareholders and all this. So that is that's a challenge. So it's something something I'm working through at the moment to be honest, Girl. So, but um, yeah, it's uh but it's something that was you know I was kind of aware of going into it, you know. Um and especially you know, when when most of our deal discussions take place in the European side of the business because that's where you know the the leasing community still provides the bulk of our origination opportunities, and that's all in Dublin, and I'm kind of between Charlotte and Dublin and balance and all that. So yeah, sometimes things occur and I'm like, oh shit, I why didn't I know about this, you know? And um but that's okay sometimes. Yeah.
Gueric DechavanneWell you can't be everywhere all the time, right? No, and that's a day, right?
David RusheAnd and to that point, like my wife and daughter are in Dublin and I'm here and I'm back and forth. So it's uh yeah, it's a lot. A lot of time in 27-year-old American Airlines triple sevens. Um or yeah, so yeah. Young, yeah, you know, which goes back to your to you guys and the the the crusade, should I call it?
Gueric DechavanneYou know, you guys were do you think we were part of the crusades?
David RusheIs that the white body the white body shortage? You know, you guys were I might have to be.
Gueric DechavanneI thought you were just calling me old. I just I mean I am, but you know, as pointing courts out, you know, recording points out all the time.
Courtney MillerI'm definitely older than he is, but yeah, and and the the best part is he always will be. That's why I hang out with him.
Gueric DechavanneYeah, yeah, yeah. Which sucks. But anyway. Yeah. Yeah, but you're right. I mean, it's you know, these old uh wine bodies, right? It's that that market is still still going strong. Every time I talk to somebody, it's still, you know, it's still kind of hanging in there. And I I think those, you know, next time we'll talk to you, you'd be like, oh yeah, I'm still flying those 35-year-old 777 Red American, right?
Courtney MillerRight. I actually I think that's a very likely outcome.
David RusheYeah, and the cabin crew will have aged just as well.
Gueric DechavanneThat's right, yeah. They stay with the airplane for life. That's right. You get assigned an airplane and that's it.
David RusheYeah, yeah, yeah. But um, yeah. That has been a challenge, um, Courtney, just to go back to your to your question there. Yeah.
Courtney MillerYeah, I do want to talk about the prep four thousand, um, which American does not have any four thousands, I don't think, on their triples. I think they're all trend.
David RusheTrent.
Courtney MillerI think they're all trend. Yeah. Um, but this is a I mean, just to jump into it. This is a niche market that is so constrained. I mean, and visible too, right? We saw United with the issues during COVID. I think they had the the uncontained uh in Denver, the ability to get overhauls. I'm interested more just just from kind of an education standpoint. How do you look at like a situation like that on the prep 4000 market from the perspective of the part out world, the parts, the the kind of latter half of life? Is that an opportunity? Do you do you see that more as a risk? How do you think about those types of things?
David RusheYeah, so we had a lot of legacy um investments in uh so we're we're predominantly like all of our 94 inch stuff is gone. So we are everything everything or most of what we're dealing with now, or the vast majority of which is 112 inch material.
Courtney MillerSo which is only on the triple, right?
David RusheYeah, obviously there's there's there's and I don't know how many aircraft I meant to look it up, but I don't know how many aircraft are flying, but it's probably less than 200, significantly less than 200.
Courtney MillerYeah, I think like Japan or Korea and United, and that was kind of it.
David RusheYeah, and then a couple of uh Omni maybe or whatever, and then so um, but they're the so we got a lot of legacy PW4000, 112-inch exposure. We bought engines, we consigned engines, we had a program with Pratt, and um and like a few years ago, had he told me how much activity we were seeing on the engine, I would have laughed. And um it but again, it's it's it's all two shops, you know. So um you're very vulnerable to um someone making a decision, but Pratt are um putting a lot of time and effort into speed, the the the turnaround times and a scrap risk on putting this material into shop is incredibly high, and it's something that they're working on. And Garrick, I don't know if if you were there in in Hartford a few years ago, they told us that they were still, you know, Pratt were saying we're still doing dollar for dollar on shop visits, that there was no discounting on material. But now we're you know, you're seeing new LP sets having to go in, you know, because engines were reaching the yeah 15, 20,000 cycle limits. So it's it's really but if people are spending that money, they're wanna they're gonna want to see utility, right? So to to Courtney's point, um you know, I don't know we could be looking at seven or eight years of per la of 112 inch operations, and somebody told me at um at a conference recently from um an airline that they were told it was 60 so six zero uh 112 inch shop visits above either level two or level three this year. Wow, that's a that's uh in the old days when the fleet was full utilization and all that, you're like you know, you'd expect to be shopping 25% of the fleet anyway or more. Yeah, um, but this is and there's and this bare percentage is but if someone told me you know you can go if you've got uh four million bucks, you can go and buy a teardown 112-inch engine or a select one, probably go with the and we're we'd love we love the select one, it's a great engine, but you know, you'd be going 112 inch, yeah, definitely.
Gueric DechavanneYeah, yeah, yeah. Well, because you you mean if you if you look at the operators for the 112 inch, right? The the as long as they're not making any moves to replace them, yeah, yeah, there's always gonna be a need, right? Because like you say, they're and especially if they're still shopping the engines, which uh that's you know, you would think at this point they'd be like, gonna burn off whatever we can and then you know fine, move on, right? Yeah, but no, they're still putting money into them, which yeah, yeah, that's that's crazy.
David RusheOn the 94 inch, you'll get some supply trickling to the market. Like I don't know, I don't know. I haven't that the MD 11s I see when I fly around the US to see plenty of them parked up. Um, but I don't know. I thought there was talk of some reactivations. Um FedEx, yeah. Yeah, some of those spares will maybe feed into the market. Um uh but and the hundred the hundred inch is another story, right? Absolutely dead during COVID. You know, we were people offering to consign us engines similar to with the CF6-80E. Again, the the market's gone bananas for those engines. Um but the 100 inch, you know, we've that's the the only of the the three dimensions we've never gotten into. Um we're looking at some options there now. There's some lease opportunities out on the market. Um, but again, that engine is going to be what the 112 inch is now in you know six or seven years, with a wider operator base and a few more shops, you know.
Gueric DechavanneYeah, right, because I mean that the there's only what I forget how many engines or how many aircraft are out there, but on the 60s, it's only A330s, right? It's not it's not a big fleet, yeah. But but you're right, those airplanes are not going anywhere.
David RusheYeah, and um GE didn't really come to the table on the Freaker version, so they've got roles, which is dominant, a Pratt, two like established P2F engine offerings, you know.
Gueric DechavanneSo and that'll that'll keep that going for a long time. Yeah, yeah. Wow, yeah.
Courtney MillerI mean on the 4000, on the 112, it's it's United. Uh they've got 38 active, then A has 11. Uh it's so yeah, no, it's the US, Korea, and Japan. So A, ASEANA, uh United has a couple in maintenance and storage, and then Korean and Jin Air has one. Then you get some uh Ukraine International.
David RusheHey.
Courtney MillerThere you go. I mean it's in storage, so it's somewhere else, but yeah. Yeah, but yeah, there's it's in the 60 range, I think.
David RusheYeah, so um, yeah, like we're we're we it's it's high risk, you know, because of the um the repair cost. You know, if there's if there's creep, you know, it it it um has a big influence on your sale price and then the lead times and a scrap risk. You know, if you can manage all that, it's you know, do pretty well. But it's not it's not gonna be around forever either. But um, yeah, those that that legit that legacy product it helps us out when times are lean in terms of active teardowns, you know.
Gueric DechavanneYeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. So I I'd love to touch on uh something that you talked about before where when you came back to Magellan, yeah, right, and you guys were predominantly part out, right? And then you you looked at it and went, look, things are definitely slowing down because of the environment that we're in. You know, it's getting tougher to find things to part out. Let's look at kind of broadening the strategy to look into leasing, or and the more we talk to people, you know, in that in the space, the more you know you realize that, yeah, you definitely need to have that diversity to be able to continue to do what you can't necessarily just rely on kind of the secondary market to be able to get stuff to then part out. You kind of have to have your own feedstock to be able to do stuff with. And you know, and and I think you're also seeing some people getting on the whether it's the repair side or MRO, right, to be able to have that kind of you know, kind of cradle to grave types situation. Um, otherwise you're always just relying on others for material, right? Yeah. So how how do you guys look at that? How do you think about that, you know, kind of moving forward in terms of like how do you guys evolve from from what you've been doing?
David RusheUm well, you know, we we talked a bit about I mentioned earlier about you know build building the pipeline for the future, and but there will be an inflection point in terms of new tech, you know, and we looked at we always would like to maybe differentiate ourselves. So we looked at some of the you know, there was some part out or stubby life opportunities on um on the Gen X kind of last year to dried up a little bit. There was some lease opportunities out there, which are actually probably pricing lower than the G90, actually. But um, yeah, so we're we're trying to identify that inflection point, and when we kind of run at it, you know. Um but um our customer base their base has never been as broad as it is now. We've um invested a lot and hired some really good people out in uh Singapore in um uh to cover APAC and uh see that as a big growth area in Latin America as well. There's lots of opportunities down there. It's just about you know that getting comfortable with the credits, you know, and they kind of they they roll in and out of bankruptcy and all this, you know, and um so um but it's it's really you know moving away from that kind of um EU US centric market in terms of our coverage. Um but you know, and if if we buy an asset on lease as well, you know, we're we're we're a sales organization at the end of the day. If there's an opportunity to flip it and it's a seller's market, then it's something we will look at, and we've always had to weigh up the dynamic between tearing down um or you know, having a green time engine that we bought that we want to place, um, or that's planned for the lease pool. Um, and then somebody comes in with a rock star offer, and you're like, okay, it's hard to turn this down, so it you know kind of have to hustle. If that if there's a strategy in there somewhere, I don't know, but um, yeah, that's um you know that's what we're having to do. And I hope I hope we never lose that agility either, right? Where we're locked into only one kind of only one avenue of of of meeting our return expectations with an asset, you know? Because you have to be able to adjust with the market. Um and I think you know we we have a lot of um V2500 opportunities on the go at the moment, and you're kind of wondering, okay, that's the market everybody's a little bit scared about, you know, because of spirit. I would be more optimistic about it. Um and it's not just because we have a pipeline, but you know, maybe there is a point when you go, alright guys, let's let's hold off here, you know, let's um let's allow this material to work itself through and and see how the market goes. Um we've we've we've as I said earlier, we've lost people and we've hired people, and we've seen the challenges of trying to get everybody to bet in. But it's great to see the different approaches that people bring, be they from an airline background, be they from a competitor background, um a uh an MRO background, and what they bring, and what you know, if we're you know looking at MA opportunities in the future, you know, if we you know look at adding MRO capabilities, to have that experience there um really helps as well. And it's add its challenges, but it's kind of a lot of what we're about at the moment, a very broad answer, I know.
Gueric DechavanneYeah, which I mean, it's a it's a broad industry, so yeah, yeah. I don't mind the broad answer. Um yeah, yeah, yeah.
David RusheUm but so I have noticed just sorry, Justin, um like a definitely a tightness in terms of trading opportunities in the last um the last six months. You know, you get the normal post-Doublin conference rush of RFPs, and we did see that. Um but it wasn't like it was in previous years. And I know that's a consequence of just the fleet being the CO and the NG fleet being a year older and coming closer, and and the and the the lessors have greater visibility on the lease terminations, and they're like, okay, we'll take these to maturity, or however, um, or they maybe the extension discussions have dried up slightly. But um yeah, there's certainly been a well, from our perspective, a dry-up and that kind of two to three year lease attached activity. So we need to.
Courtney MillerHow much of that do you think was just from the market being so hot the last couple years that we kind of reset our expectations and it's returned to normal versus uh Iran um versus just a greater market cycle?
David RusheUm well, I think some of it is down to yield, right? Because you've got less orers out there who are you know gone into Neo and Max SLB opportunities at very skinny lease rate factors, and um I think they're getting some yield from the older assets. Maybe they just want to hold on to them as well, you know. Um we talked to some lessors and they're like we kind of say to them, can we um you know, can we come in and take this aircraft off you and or do a forward purchase and handle the re-delivery process? And they're like, No, no, we want to manage that ourselves. And you're kind of going, okay, they need they need the full side life cycle of revenue, you know, or maybe it's something they just want to do and they have the technical team and the expertise or whatever, or they want a bit more freedom in terms of how they want to remarket the asset. But um there's definitely, you know, we we saw post-COVID, we saw uh a lot of airlines doing these selling, selling owned assets into the market and leasing them back, whether it's for cash generation or just to you know get them off the balance sheet um and take advantage of their ability to obtain discounted leases um versus you know a trade-off versus cost of ownership. And um, and there's some airlines, you know, like some of the US carriers who didn't get involved in that at all because they had healthy cash positions and they didn't see the motivation to do it. But those opportunities have kind of dried up as well. So I think the airlines maybe are getting a bit more comfortable in terms of their capacity needs, but it's we may see those opportunities re-emerge in you know regions which maybe are a little bit more challenged. Like there's a lot of talk about um APAC and you know, Korea, Southeast Asia maybe having you know with fuel supply issues and some voluntary um uh you know unpaid leave and stuff like that going on with um and we've got some exposure down there. We you know, we we we've got the the program with the the 3737800s on East uh East Arjets. So we're you know we're giving that some focus. But um we do, you know, I think there will be opportunities, the sale and east back opportunities from those airlines, which you know will put it will put some opportunities back into the market.
Gueric DechavanneYeah. Yeah, I mean it's interesting because you you know, if you think about you know talking about how less ores are less uh incentivized to maybe get rid of some of the older stuff, which makes perfect sense, right? Because if you if you think about most of the leases that have been put in place, even if it's over the course of the last 10 years or shorter, these were all good. I mean, the the lease rates were good, right? They were all, you know, when you're looking at like 2015, 16, 17, 18, right? All those were were pretty good lease rates. And then even during COVID, where I don't think necessarily people restructured a lot of deals. I think it was more just rent deferral, where we're now beyond that and we're back to the previous rents, right? So a lot of the deals I think that less horses have are good deals, right? And so yeah, so for them, it's like, do we really want to get rid of our cash cows at this point? Uh like, yeah, we I we know we can get a good you know a good amount for it, but it's still we need we need that. Yeah, so it's it's interesting that that whole that cycle that we're in right now.
David RusheYeah, yeah. And like, you know, obviously the end of COVID or in COVID, the the the airlines have the power with regards to, you know, if they want to do their extensions, the SR was only too happy. But now that's you know, depending on how you are in terms of capacity, that that power may have shifted, you know. Um but uh yeah, definitely some signs of you know catch-up with the you know the the the OEMs. So yeah, we'll kind of wait and see how that marries up with you know any demand impact with what's going on in the Middle East, you know.
Gueric DechavanneYeah. Yeah, and I think and I think that, as you say, that's that's coming, right? Because I mean the OEMs will ramp up product will continue to ramp up production as they are allowed to do so and as they can cope with that with supply chain and everything else, right? That's not gonna stop. They're not gonna be like, well, you know, things are slowing down, so let's not build more airplanes. Yeah, they've been constrained for too long, they will continue to ramp up. And so at some point we will have that, you know, the the point where yeah, the the it's you know, we go into an unbalanced market, uh, just you know, just because of that.
David RusheBut we are you're looking at potentially, you know, if there's some groundings, and then there's a solution, and then suddenly there's this mini COVID revival and a wrap-up in demand. And are we gonna see like a bit of a you know a balance in terms of spare parts demand? Because suddenly you've got all these aircraft that need to be reactivated that have been stored temporarily, and are we gonna look at a kind of a mini 2022, 2023 in the market?
Courtney MillerThat's interesting, yeah. Um I kind of like I kind of like that thesis, right? Because like if you think about it from the perspective of an operator, let's say right now you're looking at fuel prices and you're like, hmm, you know, I need to wait and see. I certainly don't want to kick out airplanes because that's what got me in trouble during COVID. But you're with high fuel prices, you will probably give more uh priority to the new kit just because fuel burn is lower, and you'll probably wait on those shot visits, but you won't send that airplane back or you won't kick it out. The question that you're asking is okay, assuming that that plays out, what happens when things go back to normal? Suddenly you've got these airplanes with shop visits or or just need airplanes that need to be reactivated, yeah. Not necessarily, you know, uh unplaced airplanes at less ores, but even at the operators, I think there could absolutely be a rush on uh pun intended, on uh that type of spare parts is a little bit different than like demand and and shortage, whatever, but the the requirement for spare parts, you know, you could definitely see okay, let's put this airplane through. We need the parts to do it. Yeah, that would all happen at the same time, that decision would all happen at the same time.
Gueric DechavanneYeah. And I also I also wonder, because I feel like um more people remember how quickly things can turn around. Yes. I mean, and and when we're we're in, you know, when we're in it, I guess it's it's maybe different, right? If we're it depends on how how steep of a downturn we see, right? If it's a global event or if it's regional or not, right? But I also feel like having gone through COVID and everything else, I think I feel like people are like, well, yeah, you know what, we're it's things are gonna be bad for a little bit, but they'll turn around pretty quickly. So then let's hold on to these, and and airlines will may think the same way. Yeah, we're not gonna get rid of these airplanes, right? Let let's we're gonna hold on to those, and yeah, so that that where I go, you could see that all of a sudden that rush of of demand coming in um to account for that. But yeah, because I you know I I it I guess it it depends on on the the the extent of the downturn that we will see at some point. Yeah, but if it's not as bad as people think, I think you you kind of the turnaround will be that much faster. Yeah. Because people will be like, oh yeah, it's this is not not as bad as COVID. Yeah, right. It's like, all right, well, let's go back to traveling.
Courtney MillerLike, but with one of one major there's one major difference, I mean, aside from just the magnitude, and that is during so the longer that this goes on, this kind of wait and see, which I'm still just waiting until fall. Um, because okay, they'll they'll be considering capacity decisions for for next peak season for for summer 27 at that point, but Boeing and Airbus are delivering airplanes at increasing rates during this time. That's different than what we saw during COVID. So there's a bit of a race there. We're burning the candle on both ends where okay, we don't want to commit to getting rid of this older aircraft, but we still have the new ones coming. I mean, if ever anybody's interested in watching an airframe OEM do its best uh Joe Pesci impression uh in Goodfellas, you know, pay me. Um yeah, just wait till airlines start saying, Well, I don't want that airplane right now. They're like, uh, that's cute. Pay me.
David RusheYeah, yeah.
Courtney MillerRight? So those airplanes are coming. Yeah. Um, and and we didn't see that during COVID. So there are there are two big, I mean, aside from the obvious differences with COVID, but there are two major differences today. One is we actually saw and remember COVID. The idea that there could be a shortage, the idea that we could see demand come back faster than we can supply it. Just just memories of that, the market approaches it differently. But second, it we're we're seeing increasing production through. the challenges as opposed to well no production on the max and then decreasing. So it it's not a it's not a slam dunk.
David RusheYeah.
Gueric DechavanneNo, no, no. But I but I do think that the again it depends on how steep the downturn is that we go into. Right. If it's another co-type situation when you've got you know 95 or 96% of traffic that you know goes away, right? That it's that's different. And if it's global. But if it's not, if it's more regional, I think that has a less of an impact. But I I completely agree in terms of the because right now I think both OEMs are if you know are willing to defer to help customers defer some positions because they know that they can fill they can find homes for those. That's not an issue.
Courtney MillerThey're still overbooked, right? They're still they've still sold more than they can deliver based on the time.
Gueric DechavanneThat doesn't last forever, right?
Courtney MillerAnd that's a it definitely does not and we've seen deferrals right we've seen I think Valaris the Frontier get out front with some deferrals. There were I think Jet blue did even early on but that's because Airbus was like okay like that actually helps me.
David RusheYeah yeah right yeah at some point it won't and and and I guarantee you Airbus won't be like you know what yeah we'll just we'll just nudge down production rates you just tell us when you're ready to pay for your no way like like again Joe Pesci um but like a from from a parks perspective the the obvious difference with this um crisis is that they're you know fly domestically in the US we'll all be gone to Chicago next week or whatever planes will be rammed airports will be you know a as the Charlotte will be the usual um shit show that it it is during the when it's getting into high season and um you know there is a safe haven for that we can go to there is markets fully functioning where we can sell parts you know um we didn't have that during COVID we had it nowhere and so that is an obvious difference um and the same in the same in Europe you know um but uh yeah like I I think I think I'm I'm we're not that concerned at the moment actually about you know we're we're we'll for sure we'll wait and see and I I agree with you Courtney the the the um we get over the summer and and we'll know a lot more um I mean just time yeah that you know that that's three months from now so that's twice as long as the current crisis has lasted.
Courtney MillerYeah um so we'll know yeah I saw like a utilization chart there this morning or yesterday about you know what like a lot of hasn't been discussed much about you know the the um the the impact on utilization of the Middle Eastern carriers with um with all this going on which is fairly obvious but things are there's one month of upward trend that we can kind of hang our hats on it and we've got an we've got a 320 out there which is which has been grounded which we're re-delivering soon but um yeah a bit uh yeah that's that that's having a kind of a mini example where I guess other SRs have have it at a magnitude you know yeah yeah and I don't I mean one of the biggest stories right now that I think just doesn't get the attention it deserves is that airlines aren't cutting they're just not like we keep hearing about how this is a crisis and they just can't make it airlines are not cutting capacity to the level that everybody assumes that they are yes and and the Middle East couldn't fly like some of the largest wide body connectors in the world you know they're still down I don't know 50 probably about 25% today but you know that's a lot right so if you take that out and the industry is still up we are not seeing the cuts we're seeing airlines talk about cutting but they're not actually doing it. And it's for this very same dynamic nobody wants to miss out on the recovery. It's probably the same reason the oil markets are as soft as they are and probably why they'll stay at this point for longer than people expect is simply because everybody's afraid not afraid but the downside you know if you were if you were trading oil the downside of a tweet coming out over the weekend and crashing the market the supply and demand of oil didn't change but that creates real downside. So it it in a weird way craziness creates this it's like everybody's just afraid to make a decision because you don't know you don't know which which way the same thing applies on on the aircraft side I just think there's just a whole lot of wait and see and the question then is what happens when they see and and and to be clear there's that's not a bear sentiment it could be just as bullish right I mean we it truly is is wait and see.
Gueric DechavanneYeah yeah yeah yeah that's true um so you know there's a lot of discussion now about longevity of airplanes like COs NGs right especially you know when and we'll we can get into that discussion as well later in terms of like the the part outs and the on the neos and the maxes which are happening right so there's there's all this talk about like oh yes you know what NGs and COs are going to be around forever that's never going to end so like how do you guys you know being you know in a in a as a company that provides support to these platforms right how do you guys analyze that to kind of figure out okay how long do we need to have sufficient parts to be able to support the market and when do we need to start thinking about other things on a on a more regular basis? Because I'm sure now Neo's Max is probably like it's opportunistic right if you could if you had the opportunity to do it you thought it made sense you would look at it. But it's not like hey we need to be doing this all the time. So I guess my question is yeah so from from the standpoint of like you know durability on on COs and NGs like how do you plan for that? Like what's your timeframe to go we need to make sure that we've got what we need for X amount of years.
David RusheYeah so um we're trying to de-risk our asset strategy in as much as possible into focusing on later build A320s and NGs and well let's own the NGs because there's just none available but later build a three twenties and um where you've got that neo crossover and you know you're up right up to the landing gear you know and um so and and the same on you know I've I think I've I've talked a lot in panels recently about the the divergence in the market between early build v2500s and then select and so we're trying to focus all our teardown activity on selects or um and the same tech insertion evolution pip on the CFM. So um but we get excellent data from the shops and our customers in terms of their shop visit forecasts and we the the vast majority of LLP requirements are still eight to twelve thousand cycles on the CFM and then you know something similar on the V six to eight or whatever you know um because the the cycles are longer. But when that changes we'll know right and as long as people are putting that utility value that utility in engines then that is a a real um a real bell weather for us in terms of what you know what what the what the the market's going to do. We you know we get a lot of um we get the kind of traditional you know consultancy reporting in terms of you know what the outlook is um for um uh you know shop visit demand forecasts and all that um but like we had a situation pre-COVID where um most of the um most of the smart money was shop visit peak in 2022 2023 that moved to the right in covet with covet of course and the shop visits took on a different profile and that you had more module swaps you had more reduced bills you had um um you had uh sorry somebody just dropped in my lunch yeah I didn't get mine so yeah um so you you uh you you had you know the the whether those shop visit forecasts that the you know pre-COVID were for um performance restorations and overhauls now it's you know module swaps reduce bills etc but there's still we still have confidence in longevity um but it's it's hard to do it on the edges because you don't have crossover but with the um with the airframes airframe practice you can do it by just focusing on the later build the current production aircraft without that value exposure that you have your value risk that you have with a new tech um but we are you know with our first leap and Gen X less so GTF maybe I don't know our first acquisitions will be with lease attached so we get time to learn the product um and figure it out like we're we're kind of our investment criteria is three years maximum lease term and we'll go beyond that for you know specific regions if there's potential engine exchanges throughout the lease or something so but it's it's um we're limited to three years so those leap opportunities are few and far between but there is some of them out there you know and then we would look at an extension on a leap because it's strategic and all that but yeah um playing around with a naked engine at the moment and trying to put it through um shop uh hospital visits or whatever um like on a leap or a GTF is just not where we want to where we want to play because we don't know enough about the aftermarket to you know that's how we source material. So um but that's that's uh that's our rationale we're also you know um trying to diversify our product offering so you know looking at um different opportunities you know getting to you know maybe get into the MRO space and so that will help to kind of reduce our exposure just to the parts side of things. But we will always be a US central and um and that will you know if you look at our history we were amongst the first to tear down ATRs first to tear down CRJs E170s Tech Insertion 7Bs Venefunded selects you know we we have torn down some evolution engines and and that was a real eye opener because I never thought we would pay above five million for a tear down engine which had no LP life and no HPT value value yeah a little bit of modular value but and you know that that teardown of the evolution last year has been a very successful performer. So yeah I'm and that you know on from that evolution point people buying evolution specific material gives me comfort about longevity in the market and indeed the the engine OEMs have been very good at introducing those upgrades throughout their throughout the life of of their engines which you know pushes out those mass retirement rates like what's the gap between the um you know baseline and tech insertion was like what 15 years and then you had the evolution came out what five years later so all of that will be replicated into the future.
Gueric DechavanneYeah yeah no absolutely yeah yeah that's interesting yeah I mean and I I I do think that that um I mean obviously if you're we've talked about it and and you know kind of we we understand the the commonality between the platforms right and I and I you kind of reminded me of that when you were talking about yeah we focus on some of the younger builds A320s and and ngs because there is that commonality with the maxes and neos so that ultimately there is that kind of transition by by having you know the younger stuff you can that'll play out into the Neos and Maxes as well without having to buy a Neo or a max at this point. Right which kind of which and that and I think a lot I don't know how many people realize that in terms of the the level of commonality that the the the uh the airframes have at the end of the day. Yeah. Yeah yeah and then like you know which is potentially a safer investment you know a 2016 build 320 for teardown or uh neo 2016 build neo yeah sorry a C or a Neo yeah um yeah well like what what's your opinion on you know max availability for teardowns I know there was some discussions this week about it um there's a few out there of course yeah yeah I mean you know we've we've had uh yeah some some discussions where yeah we've heard there's definitely uh you know uh more probably more than a handful that are available for teardown I think airfin is one of the the first right that took uh some of the younger ones that were uh I think we've heard what less less than year olds um for the airframe to part out and so you know but it it's uh I think you'll probably see more of that and that's purely for me it's purely based on the numbers right I mean it I think you if you can make the math work where you're making more money by taking the engines off potentially either leasing those or selling those and at this point you know you if you're one of the first few on the airframe side you're getting top dollar for the airframe um now that will change as you will know right in terms of like when you when you start getting to now all of a sudden it's not just a handful of airplanes have been parted out it's more like a dozen airplanes have been parted out right that those numbers go down really quickly in terms of what you're able to get out of the airframe right yeah but but I think for now that's what makes sense and people looking at it going well you know do I you know do I part this out and make a nice return on the asset or do I try to place it with a secondary carrier that is not willing to pay me for the fact that it's a one to six year old airplane. They're willing to pay me for a 12 10 12 year old airplane right and so they're not going to pay me the premium that I want so why would I do that if I can make more money doing you know based on just leasing two engines or selling the engines and then getting rid of the the airframe right so it it makes sense that that's happening right now.
Courtney MillerEven the transition costs and the downtime and everything just want to deal with like sidewall panels and seats and yeah merit the there's a weird gap in that kind of one to six year probably up to eight year age where who actually acquires those aircraft like if you go to if you go to a secondary uh airline that who tends to deal in secondary leases they're like yeah we're interested in a 12 year 12 year old airplane we'll we'll take a six year old airplane at 12 year old rates um but it puts in this weird category right where especially if you're first I mean we saw it on the 321 NEO if the engines are worth what they are and we know that makes the deal right there and you can be the first on the gear you know on you know what just that probably again makes it makes it on its own there's an incentive to just part it out where there wouldn't be that incentive maybe as much on a 12 year old airplane there actually is a higher incentive to part out five year old you know one because the airplane just happened to be that age but it it's this upside down situation is kind of interesting.
Gueric DechavanneYeah yeah yeah yeah yeah it's it's um and and both are readily available at the moment you know CO and Neo so it's uh yeah it's a crazy part and and I and I think look that that to me that trend will change right because at some point you will have more availability on you know or actually less demand for spare engines right as the OEMs are able to kind of put the engines that have been on the ground for that put those back in the air right as they put some of the improvements in the engines right that that will go down where all of a sudden the the the the need for spare engines will go down and at the same time you also have the OEMs which will you know which have ripped ramped up their spare school to you know 20 plus percent of the you know of their fleet right they're gonna need to bring that down as well. So that does that bring on additional spares that kind of brings that normalizes the market initially and then depending on where we are right then it could could kind of uh you know put a little damper on that market as well. So that that does change because then all of a sudden the economics don't look as attractive to just take the engines off and lease them for a couple years. Right? Because then also I think airlines will probably go will probably look at it and go, well, sure we'll take your engine but either we take it if you want a longer term it's got to be a really low lease rate. If you want a higher lease rate we'll just take it for a year right and then does that really I think that's the other part that people forget is that you know spare engine leasing is not a long term leasing business right it's usually in shorter terms that are probably on average anywhere from one to three years. There's some longer ones of course but like and that's a lot of work.
David RusheYeah if there's a downturn you know oh you get this great commitment from an airline to think of spare engine if there's a downturn a reduction that that spare engine is the first yeah the first to be panned right and um but uh it's just from a a parts perspective you know like looking at the the the Neo and the CO the um you know if you have a like a on a Neo set in the cells that might scrap out because of corrosion because of storage which happened a lot with the previous generation of aircraft post COVID you could be up from us from a tear down perspective you could be upside down in your investment.
Courtney MillerYou know the APU demand it's a 9APU is the same APU it goes on COM and if you've got that commonality of parts that's readily available in the market later build CEOs you've got nowhere to go to recover your investment you know yeah and you're relying on that yeah yeah yeah yeah I I'm I'm curious how the OEMs are handling spare's production of parts because it seems to me that over the past couple years and I don't know this but it seems to me that they would prioritize the production of aircraft as opposed to the production of spare parts so if the long pole in the tent were the parts then you would say I I I just need everything to go in the airplane so that I'm delivering aircraft and I wonder if that creates kind of this long-term kind of macro not shortage shortage isn't the right word but but just uh deficit of spare parts that it it's gonna be tough to feel because it's just gonna be this new this new average um yeah but that may just elevate the need for spare parts uh over the next five years maybe I don't know I agree and I and I hope but um the I think we like another factor in that is that we've got you know these kind of flight air contracts which you know are being exited now because of the natural order of time and airlines figuring out your airlines kind of having you know expectations that they'd have fleet replenishment complete by now or whatever or be further along but so we're moved to a more time and material based process for maintenance um a more traditional process so it means the OEMs don't they don't have those FHA contracts anymore so they don't have the visibility on the parts demand.
David RusheSo they've lost that so it makes to your point Cody makes it planning for spare availability and for throughput a little bit more difficult. We sell a lot of um our parts you know either as removed service well or overhauled to um to the OEM so you know into their repair cycle or for their customers some of them still have do have those support agreements. But yeah it's definitely an issue I would say and you know we've seen it with like you know some of the more the less kind of centric to our business items like I talked about cyball panels earlier and because they're so like um a IDG will go on an engine it'll go on another engine whereas the more specific items cyball panels seats the lead times are massive and that's why we're one of the reasons we're sitting an aircraft sometimes which has another aircraft livery or branding on the inside you know because there's just nothing available out there. Yeah now for years we had seats filling up the warehouse in Shannon from less ores or from you know consignment from less or from teardowns. We couldn't get rid of them you know now there's demand for everything.
Courtney MillerAnd and when you say I mean, I guess you're referring to the very liquid kind of economy narrow body seats.
David RusheLike ship um kind of 189Y kind of configurations or whatever. Um we'd uh eject shipsets from Les Sources and from our own teardowns as well, couldn't move them. So yeah, we scrapped a lot of them and you know, because the space is inefficient, you know. Yeah. Yeah.
Gueric DechavanneWhich I mean, and that I mean that's the I think even Boeing made those comments this week about right how they're that's one of the biggest hurdles that they have right now with their 787s delivering them, right? Is is basically getting their the seats on the airplane certified, right? And that's why they can't do that. Uh I don't know which seats or all of them. I'm assuming because I mean, you know, I I also think that on the wide body, right, airlines are getting to be you know a bit more creative with the the lopas, and so that I think is probably creating challenges to speaking of service.
Courtney MillerDid you see uh was it Air New Zealand come out with the bunk beds?
David RusheOh yeah, yeah.
Courtney MillerOh yeah, yeah.
David RusheYeah.
Courtney MillerThat sounds that sounds like a fun uh reconfiguration. Especially if you're sleeping below somebody that you don't know. Well, that yeah, no, that just sounds terrible. That sounds terrible. Like you don't know when you book your ticket. Yeah, if the guy is although I guess you wouldn't know if they're gonna snore anyway, but it feels different when you're on literally like you know 12 inches above them as opposed to you know the the next cubicle.
David RusheThey've always had these innovative things on they they do like dating flights and stuff like that a few years ago and cabin crew coming out body paint and everything, yeah. Yeah, anyway. Yeah.
Courtney MillerYeah, no, that's interesting on on the seats. I mean, uh from from that perspective, I mean, just Pratt and the whole Airbus saga and getting them GTFs and and Airbus kind of kind of throwing a fit as a result. I mean, I get it, but you know, my conspiracy theory there, and I don't know anything. But if I'm Pratt and I'm paying out this compensation for engines that are on the ground, and I go to the airlines, I say, okay, you choose. What do you want? I can give you a spare, or I can send this to the factory and you can get a new airplane. Which which would you rather have first? And I think right now the airlines would say, I need the engine. Because think about it, if you're an airline, so wait a minute, you're gonna tell me I can fly the airplanes I have and I don't have to pay for a delivery that right. I'll take I'll take the lift today without the expense of the delivery and the airplanes on the ground, like it makes a ton of sense from an airline perspective, yeah. Um, and and that all just plays into the whole supply chain, the the part side of the supply chain, even though I mean it's engines, so it's a pretty big part.
David RusheYeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Courtney MillerBut that's why they have two engines, right?
Gueric DechavanneJust in case. Yeah, yeah. Just in case, yeah. That's right. Yeah. No more, no more four engines, though. Like the the what you're talking about before, the BAC 111s are B111s, or yeah.
Courtney MillerYeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Um, those only had two, I think.
David RusheTwo, yeah.
Gueric DechavanneTwo? What is two? Oh, okay.
David RusheWhat so which is?
Courtney MillerNo, you're thinking the VC 10, which looked like a no, I'm thinking about the Averroes, too, right? The Averroes had two.
David RusheOh, the Averroes, yeah, of course. Well those had yeah, yeah.
Courtney MillerYeah, those had four four kind of uh recirculating fans that didn't recirculate. They just yeah, yeah. Lycoming, I think. Yeah, those are this where um cool.
Gueric DechavanneI mean, I so I'm trying to think. I I uh we've covered quite a bit.
David RusheUm yeah, I was one thing, I was I was chatting to one of the guys here yesterday, and um, you know, just on the topic of like, you know, what's the the biggest change you've seen in the uh the industry in the last you know, certainly my career, and which isn't as long as others have been on this and longer than others, but um you know, so we had a kind of a the the the the kind of the obvious answer is we had a confluence of unfortunate events where we had the max um the crashes and the groundings and then we had COVID and then we had Russia Ukraine you know absolute you know just a a a sequence of just chaos, right? And an industry that adapted really really well to everything. But the so that like that reshaped the parts business for sure, and um uh but documentation is the the the more boring but more relevant answer, I think. And the increased requirements that we're under now to um have uh for for documentation, um it's just every it it it felt for a while like every significant deal that we get involved with, there was a new layer of requirements um from our customers, right? And um so you know the less ores we blame the part-out guys for driving all of this, you know, and um this lack of uh now there's been some efforts over the years with um you know the AWG and all that, but yeah without this like standardized list of parts, you know, and we we've battled with less ores when we're when they're selling us engines and airframe, but no, this this this paperwork request that you've sent in is um is uh you know, this is this is above what's commercially required. Um and yeah, so I was talking to one of the the the we've an engine sales guy here, George, who's been around the block for for for many cycles, and he he was saying uh he compares the paperwork requirements when he was back working on JT9s and JT7s, where you sort of remove a flag and that was it, you're away, you know, yeah, um has practiced out. But now, you know, it looked like you know, with the the the the rollout of the incident accident clearance statement had kind of you know maybe solidified you know the all NIS kind of debacle and then but then the AOG techniques issue now we're getting requests from some of our customers or buying parts that they want non-AOG um maintenance um statements attached to the engine, which is or an engine or a part or an LLP or whatever, which is impossible to do because Explain that to me with the non-AOG so that there was no AOG technic um parts associated with this part, or no um no certification associated with that whole um that whole mess associated with this engine. So this engine did not this this part did not fly on an engine that had AOG techniques potentially misrepresented the right.
Courtney MillerI'm sorry, AOG is a company name, not an aircraft. Right, AOG technics, yeah. Yeah, okay. That makes sense, yeah.
David RusheThe guys that had the the were falsifying parts.
Courtney MillerWhich uh I mean I don't know how you could serve it or uh prove it and and certify that because the whole point was they were making stuff up. So we have to make it a lot of things.
David RusheI certify that I didn't make anything up. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Gueric DechavanneYeah. Well, which I mean that's the challenge, which which from that standpoint, like does that I mean the does add does that add additional hurdles to get into the part-out space because of that? Does it so which in some ways benefits you a little bit?
David RusheLike you can source it out, you can source, you can sort some of it out with with talent, you know, with getting good people in.
Gueric DechavanneYeah.
David RusheBut you also, you know, you have your tech records team, they need to be, you know, obviously we we get audited, we need to be, you know, we need to adhere to their regulatory requirements, our customers' requirements, um, and do kind of stand our ground at the time when we're doing a deal and say, okay, this is what's sensible here. Um but it it is a barrier to entry, I would say, and maybe there's an underappreciation for the the skill set that some people who um specialize in tech records are specializing selling parts about and having an experience um of what their customer needs. That is certainly a barrier to entry into our market. And um it's just it's it's just changed so much over the years, even in the what the um 12 years I've been involved in Magellan, just with all those, it's just yeah, um it was you know, non non non-exceedance statements, um fuel statements, you know, that were um that just you know, DER, non non PMA and DER that fluctuates in terms of you know its level of importance, you know, because um if the market's if the if the the parts market is undersupplied, people will be a bit more flexible in terms of their acceptance of certain documentation, you know. Once it stays within um regulatory requirements, and then you can be flexible about the commercial requirements. But uh yeah, it's something that has changed and become more intense like dramatically over you know even my even my time.
Courtney MillerYeah, you know. What's uh DER? I'm sorry.
David RusheUh designated engineering repair, so non-OEM repair.
Courtney MillerGot it, got it, got it.
David RusheYeah, yeah, yeah. So like you know, it it's it's always mentioned in the in the the same breath as um as uh uh PMA.
Gueric DechavanneYeah.
David RusheUm so but yeah.
Gueric DechavanneYeah, which to me that's that's that's a little harsh, right? I mean because the DERs are so common, right? It's not like it's something that you know only certain people do or are okay with or yeah, that's crazy.
David RusheYeah, yeah, and there's there's a there's arguments like we've we've seen OEM Razor presentations, Garrick, and you know that the the the the OEM's taking varying views towards the AR. Some will embrace it, some are like no, the new OEM component and repair process is always better. So, but you know, there's a value consideration there as well, you know. Um so if we don't, you know, if if if if we're not gonna get a statement with an engine that we're buying and there's not enough safe haven parts there where it doesn't apply, then you're kind of you know, it's a it's a it's a value decision then and what our customers will accept and what they won't accept. And that chain that fluctuates in terms of demand as well.
Gueric DechavanneSo yeah, yeah, yeah. Um I'd be curious to to know the whole tariff debacle last year, right? A year ago, um, which has now sort of gone away. I remember it's like three crises ago, yeah. Exactly, right? But it's still it was still a big thing for a period of what three months or whatever it was.
David RusheLike Moro America's last year in Atlanta, it was the word on everybody's lips. And then we were all sitting there talking about it. We were talking about it with an MRO, remember, and everybody had their own um we're sitting talking to these guys, and everybody had their own solution, their own version of events that you know that this is you know, this is how we solve it, and this is you know, I don't think this applies. And we all got these texts say Trump has postponed the tariff, and we were like, okay, whatever. Let's move on to the next one.
Gueric DechavanneLet's move on, yeah, yeah, yeah.
David RusheSo um it's still um so they they introduced this um zero zero um tariff environment between the US and the EU, um, which applies to uh rollable components, which is the bulk of our business, obviously. Yeah, um, but not expendables, which we do, which we have an expendables business in Florida. Because consumable and expendable parts can be moved between um aircraft, ships, whatever, um they're I as far as I know they're not deemed to be uh tariff compliant. And the tariffs are still an issue for our guys in APAC, right? Where they're dealing with countries who don't have bilateral agreements with the US, so there's still exposure over there.
Gueric DechavanneYeah.
David RusheSo we again we took a wait and see approach to it, much like we've talked about with the Middle East, um because we um you know, and we couldn't justify it in the end on that approach because we were like, okay, let's not overreact, right? Try and you know, if the customer wants the part, then they have to take on the burden of the tariff. You know, we're not gonna we're not gonna handle it here. Um but I remember there was an instance whereby we uh we put a part into a repair shop in Europe and the MRO instead of sending it to our warehouse in Shannon, they sent it to a warehouse in the US and it was a 20% tariff on it was a hundred thousand dollar part or something new, yeah, or worth not that on the aftermarket, and yeah, so pickups like that happened, you know.
Gueric DechavanneYeah, yeah, yeah.
David RusheYeah. So that was the confusion.
Gueric DechavanneYeah, and and it makes me makes me wonder, like, you know, who uh including like yourselves, like who prepared for, yeah, even though they've gone away, like should we always be aware that things could come back because that's how irrational the world is? And so do we prepare ourselves by relocating certain things in certain places so that at least we know that we don't have to import certain things when we when we might need them, uh you know, and if it comes back, like it's like I don't even know what the thinking would be behind there, but that's gotta be like you just don't know, right? Tomorrow it could be like, oh, by the way, a new tariff, and you're like, crap, yeah, now what, right? I mean yeah, right. Yeah, the easiest thing is just avoid the US.
David RusheAnd then we'll take on your tariff, okay?
Gueric DechavanneYeah, fix them at least, yeah.
David RusheYeah, well, so the the the the the the other guy who has an airplane in his office, um, you know, as he gets to the end of his term, he may decide to carpet bomb a lot of his policies, and you know, so we may be back having tariff discussions again. Who knows? You know, it's just yeah very unpredictable. But um I think I think we're geared up for it, you know. Um that we we've diversifying the customer base, like I talked about earlier on, has really helped in that respect. Yeah, yeah, not just being beholden to the two big regions, you know, um, which aren't necessarily getting on the best at the moment. But um, yeah, um yeah, I'd forgotten all about the tariffs. Crazy, isn't it?
Gueric DechavanneI know, right? It's been because we've we've had so many other things happen in that one-year time frame. Yeah, because it was a big deal. Because yeah, remember we were in in Iced at Asia, Tokyo, and that was that was still a big point of interest from people like, oh, what do you think is gonna happen? And then it was a big like, oh no, never mind.
Courtney MillerI mean, a lot of that did just go away, right? Like with the stroke of a pen. A lot of it went away, especially for aviation. Um, but yeah, I mean, it it it certainly was painful. We saw and I think Embraer is still dealing with that. So airlines are still looking at taking deliveries in the US, which a lot of those 175s, or I think all of them, are are headed to the US, and that creates a problem. And then you get into the issue of well, wait a minute, exactly how much of this airplane is subject to what tariffs, right? It's a Brazilian made, but it's got American engines on it. So how do you split that out? And and then it and then it just came down to uh what did the that local customs agent how good of a night's sleep did he get? What do you have for breakfast? You know, what kind of mood was he in? Um and and it was it was just kind of all over the place, but then you kind of created this I mean there was kind of this competitive edge and how airlines were able to resolve it, but then not communicate that to other airlines because it was an advantage for him. Um so though those type of things are are still happening. It's just worse.
Gueric DechavanneYou just hope that worse stuff went through that process and have the experience than them going somewhere else when it happens again. Like, oh that guy that was what what did he do again? What was the what was that loophole that he had that really worked for us? I don't know, he's gone. I you know, gonna go through the whole process again because yeah, that was definitely tedious, right?
Courtney MillerBut it was damaging to to the industry, and and and it's not you know, I think you could definitely make the argument that we're still feeling the impact of that. I mean, we talked originally when we just started talking about you know the softness in the market that started before Iran, right? On on some of these, on some of these asset types, and not that it's softness, but uh so much as it's just not as hardness? Is that no? What's the opposite of softness when we're talking about hotness?
Gueric DechavanneIs that yeah, hotness, not strong strong, maybe strong as sure. Yeah, hardness just doesn't sound right. I feel dirty saying it. I feel like I'm saying it.
Courtney MillerThe buoyancy. Buoyancy there, yeah, yeah, right. But but that's what happens too. Like if you think about just human psychology, the we expect, and and it's happening right now with oil and everything that's going on, we expect the impacts to be immediate. And really, that's just the market reaction to the future reactions, yeah. And it it runs over the course of probably nine to I don't know, 24 months before you really kind of know what actually played out over that time. So, I mean, we're still kind of seeing the impact of that for sure.
David RusheYeah, and and like I think we you know, we've been a ja uh a Japanese own company, we spent a lot of time on compliance and all that, and um so we had to make sure that what we were doing during like there was a lot of diligence on the tariff side of things, but um uh and you know it was kind of lined up with we you know, we spent there's a lot of export requirements on where a part goes, you know, particularly in the aftermath of Russia and you know, you know we get end user statements where possible, which is always commercially tricky, and um so with that, you know, the tariffs just became another but we had some of the processes in place already, which was which was very helpful. Um so you know, we'd have a a kind of a firmish commitment from the entity buying apart from us about where they were going to ship the part. We had that in place already, so it did cut out some of the confusion about tariffs. Um but it was tricky and it coincided with the start of our financial year as well, or um in FY25, and it was the MRO and everything, and everything it was just a bit of a bit of craziness, you know. Yeah, yeah.
Courtney MillerSo um yeah, well, listen, I'm I'm noticing a trend. The future is documentation. Yeah, I mean, as as boring as it is, I think that especially on on the the side of the market that you're spending your time on, like there's real value. Carlos mentioned this on our last podcast where he said, Yeah, you know, uh repossessing an airplane is one thing, I need the records, or otherwise it's not worth what you think it is.
David RusheYes, as George here said to me yesterday, it's a paperwork exercise now. Yes, and the part is in there somewhere, you know.
Courtney MillerUm and and AOG just made that so much worse because it highlighted the risk to people. Now they actually have to ask the question.
David RusheOh, it also highlighted the value of having a good engineer. Because that was what you know, that good engineering and good good record keeping, because that was what that was what exposed it in the first place, you know. Um, so you know, we should be and you know that feeds into a whole discussion about you know um engineering shortages that we're facing. I thought we've probably embraced that as an industry, how tough it's gonna be to attract people to spend their time on a ramp. Um you know, it's it's um it's a hundred odd degrees here in Charlotte um from uh end of June, July, August. You've got guys working out, second busiest hub for American Airlines, you've got guys working out, it's not you know, it's it's the glamour from a lot of it is gone. And you're standing on a ramp working on aircraft, and um, and that is you know, that there's a lack of maybe collective responsibility to get people, get enough people trained up, and people who are really good will have a big advantage going forward, I think.
Gueric DechavanneSo AI is gonna take care of that.
Courtney MillerAI is gonna take care of that. Oh, sorry, so you hold up your phone and it says oh AOG part detected. Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Just it'll it'll highlight it in red. Yeah. Um, but I mean, so over the past, well, particularly in the US, but over the past really five years, the attention was on the pilot shortage. Yeah, right. I've been looking at the pilot shortage for a lot longer than that based on what I was doing at at Martier. Um, but that's very uh it's very sharp and sudden, and you feel it right away. What people don't realize is the long The very long macro uh technician shortage that we have. And it's it's it's more traditional. Um, but whether it be engineers, whether it be technicians, we're struggling. And then it's not a US only thing, like the the pilot shortage was for a for a few years. Yeah. Um, that's and it's not necessarily getting better. And suddenly at a time when the need for them is is increasing with the need for documentation, right? That's I mean you feel that a lot more than say Garrick and I do on on our side of the business, but just finding finding the talent um that that can do that, yeah.
David RusheYeah. So like we do we didn't we didn't talk about the like we mentioned the ISO appraiser program, but yeah. So I've obviously I'm an appraiser since 2017, I think, and um taking a more active role in the um the appraiser community since you need to clean them up, Dave. Yeah, yeah.
Courtney MillerRough them up a little bit.
David RusheWell we we try to take more of an active role in in in with uh making people who are you know appraiser candidates they you know there's often maybe a lack of appreciation for how important the records are and where they are, yeah, and what's there, and how much of a part of your your evaluation is a construct of the quality of your records. Yeah.
Courtney MillerThat's actually a really good business idea for you, Garrett. You should have your published values with documents and without documents.
Gueric DechavanneRight.
Courtney MillerAnd then you can sell the documents.
Gueric DechavanneThen I can sell you. There you go, yeah, because it's worth so much more. Yeah. Um it actually it's so all this this this talk of documentation make me makes me think of remember when blockchain was a thing? Yeah. I'm still convinced this is a solution. Right? And how like so and you know, it's not I haven't s heard about it as as much as we did a few years back, but like from your side, how like is that get gained any traction? Uh is digitization, like how does that work into the documentation side of things?
David RusheYeah, it's like it's yeah, it's increased trend towards digital digital it digitalization rather than boxes and boxes of of ATA chapters, you know. Yeah, um, but the guys have been you know looking at looking at options there, particularly as we grow the lease pool, you know. Um so it is think yeah, did you're you're right, uh Garrick, it did die off because uh now we're bringing documentate documentation back of this conversation for but um it did die off, you know. It was it was a um yeah, but uh it it's it's it's very much relevant and it's it's it's there.
Courtney MillerWell the reason why it died off is because crypto died off. I mean NFTs, which is effectively what you're talking about, is each each record it gets an NFT, you know. This is this is the the source of truth, uh, but those became you know just incredibly unpopular. I still think AI has this cycle to go through. But if somebody were going to to do it and look at it, right now would be the time to do it because it's pure value, right? This is the way to do it, zero trust, publicly, public ledger, yeah.
David RusheYeah, so yeah, because we we've been looking at like with tech record software, um, about you know upgrading or expanding what we use, and um the conversation is always about AI and you know, using AI for character recognition, whatever. You're gonna look for going to look for a piece of paper and let AI do it for you, you know. But I haven't asked about blockchain, but I'm sure it's there as well, you know.
Gueric DechavanneYeah, yeah, well, because you would you would think that it's because it is such an important part of the value of a component, you know, that like or you know it it I would have thought that it would have gained more traction by now, just because of that fact, to try to make things also easier. Because you're you know you're talking about how now you've got more layers of documentation or more things that you need to provide. Like, well, that was a way of doing it. And yet I think people kind of lost focus on how do we continue on that path and do more of it. And you know, and I don't know if it's just because of the other things that have been going on, like wars or whatever else we've got going on that you know, tariffs or but uh yeah, but I'm surprised that it it's yeah, it's not it's not something that we readily talk about.
David RusheUm like I I think the the you know AI will will add value on the on the record side for sure, but the commercial decisions that you're relying on records guys to make still needs to be made by them. And you know, that's that's that's impossible to replace. Um same, you know, legal pricing um and you know, repairs where we see AI, we see the benefit of it in those areas, but still having the experience to apply commercial acumen to it is something that we we will always value above anything, you know.
Gueric DechavanneUm so we still have some worth in ourselves, then is what you're saying. Yeah, because we old and we have experience.
David RusheYou know, we just take that away, yeah. And even even Courtney, you've kind of tone down your not tone down, sorry, you've you had these graphs that we're using. Now have you moved away from AI? Are you rejecting AI? You're some of the the your mark your forecasting.
Courtney MillerUh so I I use AI heavily, but only on the back end, right? So coding, um uh early early research, but you're not wrong. Um there is uh I mean I was just reading articles today, and it's big news, like it's it's it's something to pay attention to. Uh an executive at Google gave a uh commencement speech and was almost booed off the stage. There's this trend of graduates booing any mention of AI. So the backlash is here. Um so I don't use it on anything on the front end of my business. That's all right. Still you, yeah, still there. Sorry, haven't I but sorry not? Sorry. The the the point being, like when you're talking about records, um actually, like it no AI is not gonna uh you know AI is great at filling in fuzzy gaps. Well, that's exactly what you don't want when when you're dealing with records. Um, but object character recognition, all that kind of stuff is but it's been around forever. Like that's that's not anything new. But the I mean, at the risk of sounding anachronistic, the blockchain, you know, is I I am surprised because there was talk even before the pandemic of yeah of that on the aircraft record side. Yeah, and I'm I'm surprised we haven't seen more more traction there.
David RusheYeah, yeah, I agree. But there there may be, we're just maybe more focused on AI or no.
Gueric DechavanneJust take note today. Based on the podcast, when we publish it, somebody will then come out and be like, oh, you know what? Oh yeah, we forgot about that. Let's focus on that again.
David RusheYeah, yeah, yeah.
Gueric DechavanneWe'll see that.
David RusheYeah. Um, but uh yeah, like the just the the incident um accident clearance statement there um just reminded me of uh I think it was the first the first um my first acquisition at Magellan was a an A340 um that had come out of Asia. Um it was a really really old MSN. Um it had a tail strike. So it was and a one of the first usages, this is 2014, 2015, it was our first time seeing the um incident accidents clearance statement. And um so normally you look at an aircraft and it's got an incident as a red flag, you don't you don't proceed. But we looked into it and realized that uh APU, the four engines and the main legs, the landing gear were not on the aircraft at the time of the um so maybe that's why it had a tail strike. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Aha! You're on something there, Courtney. Yeah, sorry. But it it was so that was like, you know, those kind of deals are are um are rare, you know, but they um you know they can work out really well. And you know, that was because we had the right people in the team to spot those stuff.
Gueric DechavanneYeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, I mean look, and that's as you said before, right? And then we we could come back to it. Experience is just it it's hard to replicate. So, you know, and it's so valuable these days, and and there is less and less of it, it seems, right? Um and we don't know what the what the younger generations, what experiences they will have that will be comparable to what you know, the old guys that seem like they're complaining a lot, you know, they're like, ah, it's like what I gotta talk to this guy, yeah, because he knows a lot. Oh, yeah, but he's gonna yell at me for something. You know, those guys that's like those guys that that that just are you know hardcore, right? Those are they're retiring, right? They're going away, right? And that's they're taking the experience with them, which is a shame.
David RusheYeah, yeah, yeah, absolutely.
Gueric DechavanneYeah, yeah, yeah. So, but look, Dave, uh, it's it's been great chatting. Yeah, yeah. Uh, we've definitely taken up a lot of your time today.
David RusheSo that's right. It was it was uh brilliant.
Gueric DechavanneYeah, but this is it's always fun to chat with you and glad we were able to bring you on, kind of you know, share some of your background as well and hear about what's going on. So I'm so glad that you know we certainly uh very well deserved the the promotion to president CEO, right? So uh looking forward to seeing how uh you know how well you do in that role and you know, keep keep us little people in mind, you know, when uh when you make it.
David RusheYou know, my wife and daughter at home, you know, I've been in in Dublin kind of you know uh that's why I'm getting on 27-year-old triple sevens, you know. So yeah, a bit of back and forth, but no, it's been it's been worth it and it's been great. And you know, um yeah, I uh it's the just hope we're geared up for the challenges that are ahead and um and that you know that what we're some of the conversations we've had here turn out to be true, and you know that it's yeah it's a great industry, it really is.
Gueric DechavanneIt is, it's so much fun.
David RusheYeah, and this this end of it, like I you know the the you know I talked talked earlier about my career and how I bounced around between different companies, but you know, this is where this is where I've always kind of had a speciality.
Gueric DechavanneIt's where you meant to be, yeah, yeah, yeah.
David RusheSo nice, nice.
Courtney MillerYeah, look, so we'll just take uh 30% transaction fee on every Magellan token uh that's issued, crypto Magellan token. Yeah, absolutely, yeah. Um Bob's your uncle.
Gueric DechavanneYeah, there you go.
David RusheYeah, is Yen okay?
Gueric DechavanneYeah. We'll take whatever. Whatever, whatever you want. Yeah, whatever you can get rid of. That's fine. We'll take whatever. Yeah, that's right. We're we're in it, we're a nonprofit, so we'll take whatever, you know.
Courtney MillerNo, we are not a nonprofit. We are an unprofit.
Gueric DechavanneYeah, that's true. We're unprofit. That's right, yeah. We don't make any money out of it. No, but it's good, it's it's awesome. You know, it's certainly it's always it's always a pleasure chatting with you. So thanks very much.
Courtney MillerOkay now. Say something too.